Global oil demand is expected to remain depressed into 2021 as airplane travel and work commutes have yet to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new report.
Demand for crude and petroleum products has been growing as nations have reopened economies and lifted lockdowns. Crude demand has grown by a record 13 million barrels a day since the bottom of the coronavirus-driven oil crash in April, recovering to 89 percent of pre-pandemic levels, up from 78 percent in April.
However, demand growth is expected to wane and plateau to roughly 92 percent to 95 percent of pre-pandemic levels through the first quarter of 2021, according to energy research firm IHS Markit. That’s because air travel and work commutes are forecast to remain subdued until the virus is contained and vaccines are widely available.
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The number of airplane flights globally is still about 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels, compared to 78 percent below pre-pandemic levels in April. However, jet fuel consumption is still 50 percent off pre-pandemic levels since demand for long-distance flights remains depressed.
Gasoline sales have been recovering since May after falling to 50 percent below pre-pandemic levels in April. However, gasoline sales remain about 18 percent below pre-pandemic levels since many corporate workers are still working remotely.
“The meteoric rise of world oil demand from the lowest lows of the COVID crash is going to come up just short of a full comeback, at least for now,” Jim Burkhard, IHS Markit’s head of oil markets, said in a statement. “For demand to fully return, travel — especially air travel and commuting to work — needs to get back normal. And that won’t happen until there is containment of the virus and effective vaccines.”
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August 26, 2020 at 09:36PM
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Oil demand to remain depressed into 2021 - Houston Chronicle
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