(Reuters) - The COVID-19 pandemic this year has dented oil consumption and brought forward forecasts by energy majors, producers and analysts for when the world’s demand for oil may peak.
The rise of electric vehicles and a shift to renewable energy sources were already prompting downward revisions in forecasts for long-term oil demand.
While there is no consensus on when oil demand could peak, the revised predictions mark a boon to the fight against climate change and could weigh on oil companies’ plans to explore for and develop new resources.
BP - Could be as early as 2019
BP forecasts COVID-19 will knock around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) off by 2025 and 2 million bpd by 2050 in its central scenario.
In its two aggressive scenarios, COVID-19 accelerates the slowdown in oil consumption, leading to it peaking last year. In the third scenario, oil demand peaks at around 2030.
For a graphic on BP peak oil:
Equinor - 2027-2028
Norwegian oil and gas firm Equinor expects global oil demand to peak by around 2027-2028, two to three years earlier than the company previously forecast.
“Earlier assumptions for peak oil demand to happen around 2030 may be challenged,” the Norwegian oil major said in its annual energy outlook.
Equinor sees oil demand at 99.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, and falling to 84 million bpd in 2050, under its central scenario, dubbed Reform.
For a graphic on Equinor peak oil:
Bernstein Energy - 2025-30
Analysts at Bernstein Energy say IMF projections for GDP growth means global oil demand will again stand at 2019 levels of around 100 million bpd by 2023 before soon plateauing.
“Oil demand has not peaked, but it is likely not that far off either ... we expect demand will not peak until sometime in 2025-30.”
Rystad Energy - 2026
Norway’s biggest independent energy consultancy Rystad Energy sees global oil demand peaking at 101.6 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2026, down from a forecast made in November of a peak in 2028 at 102.2 million bpd.
“The adoption of electrification in transport and other oil-dependent sectors is accelerating and is set to chip away at oil sooner and faster than in our previous forecast,” Rystad wrote.
For a graphic on Rystad Energy demand forecast:
IEA - within the next 10 years
The Paris-based International Energy Agency said peak oil demand is already a reality in advanced economies but is offset by a rise of 9 million bpd in developing economies between 2019-2030.
“The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end within the next 10 years, but in the absence in a large shift in government policies, I don’t see a clear sign of a peak,” IEA chief Fatih Birol told Reuters.
“A global economic rebound would soon bring oil demand back to pre-crisis levels,” he said in an interview.
For a graphic on IEA peak oil:
Vitol - 10 years
Long-term demand may have been permanently eroded by the pandemic but a peak has yet to be reached, according to the chief executive of Vitol, the commodities giant that is the world’s biggest oil trader.
“We continue to believe that demand for oil will not peak for another decade, but nonetheless we must position our business for a lower emissions world,” Russell Hardy said.
Goldman Sachs - after 2030
The rise in electric cars, renewable energy and plastics recycling will sap oil demand but growth in developing countries will push a peak beyond 2030, Goldman Sachs said.
“We do not expect global oil demand to peak before 2030 in our base case driven by solid fundamental economic growth, emerging market demographics and relatively low oil prices,” the bank said.
OPEC - Around 2040
In its first ever prediction for global oil demand to peak, the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand would recover in the next two years but plateau by 2040.
“At the global level, oil demand is expected to increase by almost 10 million bpd over the long term, rising from 99.7 million bpd in 2019 to 109.3 million bpd in 2040 and to 109.1 million bpd in 2045,” it said in its World Oil Outlook.
That 2040 level stood at 1 million bpd below those the producer club predicted last year.
For a graphic on Opec peak oil:
Shell - no prediction
Royal Dutch Shell has held off on giving any prediction, but CEO Ben van Beurden told reporters this year that the pandemic may have already brought about a peak in demand.
“Demand will take a long time to recover if it recovers at all,” van Beurden said.
“Energy demand, and certainty mobility demand, will be lower even when this crisis is more or less behind us. Will it mean that it will never recover? It is probably too early to say, but it will have a permanent knock for years,” he added.
Reporting By Noah Browning; editing by David Evans and Bernadette Baum
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April 21, 2021 at 08:52PM
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Factbox: Pandemic brings forward predictions for peak oil demand - Reuters
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