Oil futures fell for a fifth session in a row on Monday, with the U.S. benchmark at logging its lowest finish in almost six weeks as the immediate risk of a bigger U.S.-Iran conflict continued to fade, easing worries about potential global supply disruptions.
“Traders seem convinced that Iran will not block the Strait of Hormuz or carry out attacks on [oil] shipments,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, in a note. “That’s because Iranian exports to China are a significant source of the government’s revenue and without it, the economic crisis will only exacerbate.”
President Donald Trump has “also backed away from military confrontation, as increased tensions in the Middle East and higher Oil prices will hit both consumers and businesses which is the last thing he wants before the November Presidential election,” he said.
West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery CLG20, +0.09% fell by 96 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $58.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest finish for a front-month contract since Dec. 3, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices also tallied a fifth straight session decline, the longest losing streak since the eight-session fall that ran to Oct. 3.
March Brent crude BRNH20, +0.05% lost 78 cents, or 1.2%, to $64.20 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, with prices down a fifth session and at the lowest settlement since Dec. 12.
WTI, the U.S. benchmark, fell 6.4% last week, its biggest percentage loss since July, while Brent, the global benchmark, slumped 5.3%, for its biggest drop since August.
Oil fell despite antigovernment demonstrations in Iran over the weekend that followed the Iranian government’s admission that it unintentionally shot down a Ukrainian airliner last week, killing all 176 people aboard, after initially denying responsibility.
Trump, in a tweet, addressed Iran’s leaders, saying, “DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS.”
“If the regime opts to quash the protests as it did two months ago, this could quickly put an end to the phase of detente between the U.S. and Iran,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. “The risk of the conflict flaring up again should not be ignored, so a certain risk premium on the oil price is still appropriate.”
Traders, however, appear focused on other issues, he said, including the expected signing of the U.S.-China “phase one” trade deal on Wednesday.
“It is hoped that this will give oil demand a boost. We do not believe this will happen. At best, it is likely merely to prevent any further slowdown in growth,” Fritsch said.
In other energy trading, February gasoline RBG20, +0.18% fell 0.1% to $1.6573 a gallon, while February heating oil HOG20, +0.12% declined by 1.6% to $1.898 a gallon.
February natural-gas futures NGG20, +0.55% fell 0.9% to settle at $2.182 per million British thermal units.
Traders will be looking to a number of monthly oil reports that are set for release this week — from the Energy Information Administration on Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Wednesday and the International Energy Agency on Thursday.
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January 14, 2020 at 03:10AM
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